The curious story of the 2018 Romanian traditional family referendum: buck-passing and the failure to mobilise voters
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Abstract
In 2018, a referendum to revise the Constitution took place in Romania. Just one article was in contention for revision. The goal was to make gay marriage unconstitutional. In the end, the referendum failed due to a low turnout of just 21.1%, below the 30% threshold required for validation. This paper looks into the causes of the low turnout. First, there is an overview of knowns and unknowns, such as lack of exit poll data and issues with the voting population numbers. The bulk of the paper deals with two overlapping narratives about the causes of low turnout - first, a boycott campaign and second, a combination of factors, especially low mobilisation. Using precinct level results, supplemented by pre and post referendum polling data, an examination of evidence for both narratives is put forward. The results provide a case for failure of mobilisation by main political parties and religious organisations, especially the Orthodox Church, despite public statements of support for a “Yes” vote in the referendum. In turn, this was based on a buck-passing strategy by political parties and religious organisations.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
Stănescu, I. (2020). The curious story of the 2018 Romanian traditional family referendum: buck-passing and the failure to mobilise voters. Sociologie Românească, 18(2), 74-111. https://doi.org/10.33788/sr.18.2.3
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Biroul Electoral Central Referendum naţional pentru revizuirea Constituţiei 2018 (2018). Statistici - Rezultate în format deschis. Available at referendum2018.bec.ro/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rezultate_format_deschis.xlsx. Accessed on 6/7/2019.
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CURS (2018). Sondaj privind referendumul constituţional (20 sept-1 oct). Available at https://curs.ro/ro/sondaj-privind-referendumul-constitutional-20-sept-1-oct.
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Eremia, R. (2018). Sondaj CURS. 85% din votanţii PNL şi 70% din votanţii USR se opun căsătoriei între persoanele de acelaşi sex. Ce spun susţinătorii PSD şi ALDE. 25/07/2018. Available at https://adevarul.ro/news/politica/sondaj-curs-85-votantii-pnl-70-votantii-usr-opun-casatoriei-persoanele-acelasi-sex-spun-sustinatorii-psd-alde-1_5b585e16df52022f759ead1b/index.html. Accessed on 17/8/2019.
European Commission (2008-2018). Eurobarometer. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm. Accesed on
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Flora, G., Szilagyi, G., & Roudometrof, V. (2005). Religion and national identity in post-communist Romania. Journal of Southern Europe and the Balkans, 7(1), 35-55.
Herman, E. S., & Chomsky, N. (1994). Manufacturing Consent. The Political Economy of the Mass Media. London: Vintage Books.
IRES (2018). Studiu IRES: Ce rămâne după referendum? Radiografia unui eşec anunţat. Sinteza.
Maner, H.-C. (1997). Parlamentarismus in Rumänien (1930-1940). Demokratie im autoritären Umfeld. Munchen: R. Oldenbourg.
McGee, R. W. (2016). Has Homosexuality Become More Accepted Over Time? A Longitudinal Study of 98 Countries. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2799843 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2799843.
Mearsheimer, J. (2001). The tragedy of Great Power politics. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.
Mihai, B., Nistor, C., & Simion, G. (2015). Post-socialist urban growth of Bucharest, Romania - a change detection analysis on Landsat imagery (1984–2010). Acta geographica Slovenica, 55(2), 223-234.
Moraru, A. (2010). Social perception of homosexuality in Romania. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 5, 45-49.
Mungiu-Pippidi, A. (2018). De ce sondajele au greșit prezenţa la referendum. Update: Prognoza pentru votul la Parlamentul European. Available at www.romaniacurata.ro/de-ce-sondajele-au-gresit-prezenta-la-referendum. Accessed on 16/11/2019.
National Statistics Institute (2018). Accesul populaţiei la tehnologia informaţiilor şi comunicaţiilor anul 2018. Available at https://insse.ro/cms/ro/content/accesul-popula%C5%A3iei-la-tehnologia-informa%C5%A3iei-%C5%9Fi-comunica%C5%A3iilor-rom%C3%A2nia-2018. Accesed on 26/11/2019.
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National Statistics Institute (2019b). Population and housing census - access to aggregated data. Available at http://colectaredate.insse.ro/phc/aggregatedData.htm. Accessed on 9/9/2019.
National Statistics Institute (2019c). Tempo database. Available at http://statistici.insse.ro:8077/tempo-online/#/pages/tables/insse-table. Accessed on 9/9/2019.
Necula, C. (2018). Familia, hârtia de turnesol a răutăţii ce ne bântuie... Sinteza. 57, 42-45.
Nohlen, D., & Stöver, P. (2010). Elections in Europe: A Data Handbook. Baden-Baden: Nomos.
Obae, P. (2018). Audiențe lunare octombrie 2018. Available at https://www.paginademedia.ro/tip_audienta/audienta-medie/?an=2018&luna=10. Accessed on 8/8/2019.
Papaya Advertising (2018). Copiii Referendumului (Children of the Referendum) [Video file], 2018, October 1. Available at https://www.facebook.com/PapayaAdvertising/videos/copiii-referendumului/2448204978537803 Accessed on 13/10/2019.
Patriarhia Română (2014). Biserica Ortodoxă Română la 31 decembrie 2014. Available at http://patriarhia.ro/biserica-ortodoxa-romana-la-31-decembrie-2014-2875.html.
Pew Research Center (2016). Eastern European Survey Dataset. Available at https://www.pewforum.org/dataset/eastern-european-survey-dataset/. Accessed on 28/8/2019.
Pew Research Center (2017). Religious Belief and National Belonging in Central and Eastern Europe. Available at https://www.pewforum.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/05/CEUP-FULL-REPORT.pdf. Accessed on 28/8/2019.
Rotariu, T., & Comşa, M. (2004). Câteva consideraţii statistice asupra alegerilor, în T. Rotariu & M. Comşa (Eds.), Alegerile generale 2004. O perspectivă sociologică. Cluj: Eikon.
Rotariu, T., Dumănescu, L., & Hărăguş, M. (2017). Demografia României în perioada postbelică (1948-2015). Iaşi: Polirom.
Scutaru, C. (2018). Referendum familie. Tăriceanu, decizie ALDE. DC News, 26/09/2018. Available at https://www.dcnews.ro/referendum-familie-tariceanu-decizie-alde_615097.html. Accessed on 19/9/2019.
Şandor, S. D., & Popescu, M. (2008). Religiosity and Values in Romania. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 22E, 171-180.
The Electoral Commission (2016). Spending for EU Referendum campaigners. Available at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/Spending-for-EU-referendum-campaigners.pdf
V.A. (2018). Stop Fals: Câți moldoveni au primit cetăţenie română în ultimii ani. Available at https://cotidianul.md/2018/04/24/stop-fals-cati-moldoveni-au-primit-cetatenie-romana-in-ultimii-ani. Accessed on 8/10/2019.
Voicu, M., & Constantin, A. (2012). Religious revival in Romania: between cohort replacement and contextual changes, în G. Picker, & K. Sammet (Eds.), Transformations of Religiosity: Religion and Religiosity in Eastern Europe 1989 - 2010. Wiesbaden: Springer.
Zaller, J. R. (2006). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zamfir, C. (2004). O analiză critică a tranziţiei. Ce va fi "după"? Iaşi: Polirom.